Can Ukraine Hold Elections This Year?
Ukraine’s president and parliament were voted into office in 2019, and their terms of office were due to expire in May and August 2024, respectively. However, the constitution prohibits the holding of parliamentary elections during martial law, while the Electoral Code prohibits holding any elections during martial law or a state of emergency in the whole country or in parts of it.
As amending the constitution during martial law is also not allowed, this leaves a presidential election as the only option under current war circumstances, if the parliament amends the Electoral Code and calls the election. But this is highly unlikely for now because virtually all its members support the “first peace, then elections” approach. Another scenario would see a presidential election if martial law is not prolonged beyond its latest period ending on August 7, which is also subject to the parliament’s approval.
Thus, the soonest realistic date for any elections is December (factoring in the steps to be taken from August), provided that a peace deal is reached and there is no more martial law or state of emergency. Or in September or October if the parliament revokes martial law ahead of schedule, which is not likely at all.
Who Can Vote and How?
Democratic elections require that every citizen can freely and equally express their political will. However, out of a population 37.7 million in 2023, including those who left the country, five large categories of Ukrainians would face clear obstacles in doing so if elections were to be held in the current wartime conditions.
First, military personnel. As of the beginning of this year, there were at least 600,000 serving in the area of active hostilities (not counting those performing military tasks outside the territory of Ukraine). It is unlikely that this number will be significantly reduced in the near future. Their participation in the electoral process would be limited by factors such as: security risks, not only in organizing the vote but also in campaigning in or near combat zones; bureaucratic and logistical difficulties due to factors such as their constant mobility, the classified nature of deployments, and limited infrastructure; and also restricted candidacy rights, since active-duty members of the military face legal, institutional, and practical conditions that either exclude them or severely limit their ability to run for office.
Five large categories of Ukrainians would face clear obstacles in doing so if elections were to be held in the current wartime conditions.
Second, people living in the territories occupied by Russia or in Russia. According to one 2024 estimate, up to 3.5 million Ukrainians live in the occupied territories. They would lack any access to the electoral process, and they face ongoing coercion by the Russian authorities to renounce Ukrainian citizenship. The ones in Russia also face this problem, and those that still have their national documents would have to travel back to Ukraine to vote as it does not have consular offices in Russia.
Third, people living near the area of active hostilities. It is impossible to accurately determine the number of people who have remained in cities such as Konstantynivka, Kramatorsk, and Pokrovsk, but it is safe to assume that the security situation means that all or most of them would be excluded from the electoral process.
Fourth, internally displaced persons (IDPs). As of April 2025, there were 4.6 million IDPs registered in Ukraine. In the elections in 2019, IDPs experienced a significant level of exclusion due to limited access to information about their rights and difficulties in registering at a new place of residence, among other things. Even if some processes have improved since then under the 2020 Electoral Code, and with statements about improving their rights, the much greater number of IDPs today means there is bound to be still significant gaps in their ability to vote.
Fifth, the diaspora and refugees. Since February 2022, 6.9 million people have left Ukraine, about 4.3 million of whom are in the EU with temporary protection status, which has been extended until March 2026. According to a recent study, only 31% of Ukrainians who have left plan to return home. By one estimate, the number of emigrants will increase by 200,000 this year. According to another study, up to half a million men who are now not allowed to leave the country will do so as soon as the opportunity arises. Altogether, the number of Ukrainians eligible to vote abroad could reach 5.3 million.
The Electoral Code stipulates that voting abroad can only take place in Ukraine’s diplomatic missions, of which there were 195 as of 2024. In countries hosting a high number of Ukrainians, these are unlikely to be sufficient to the task of enabling all those wanting to vote to do so. In the 2019 presidential election, just over 55,000 people voted in 101 polling stations abroad, out of 424,000 on the electoral list of voters abroad. Participation would certainly be much higher today. For example, in Romania there is only one consulate in Bucharest for, according to various estimates, 90,000 to 220,000 Ukrainians in the country.
Remote Voting as a Lifeline
The progress in digitalization of public services since 2019 could offer one way to enable the Ukrainians in the categories above to take part in elections more comprehensively. In particular, many point to the successful Diia platform and mobile application that allows Ukrainians to access their personal documents, such as passports, identity cards, and driver’s licenses, among many other services.
In 2021, Deputy Prime Minister for Innovation and Technology and Minister of Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov did not rule out that there could be a digital dimension to the elections in the coming years. However, he and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy have stated that it is currently impossible to organize the casting of votes through Diia, although preparations for doing so are reportedly underway.
For now, Diia is more a symbol of reforms than an election mechanism, but it has the potential to be one.
Theoretically, Diia or another method of remote voting, such as by post, could partially solve the problem of including all categories of Ukrainians in the electoral process. But this would run into the issue of public trust. In a December 2024 survey, 48.6% said that they opposed voting by post or through Diia, although this was a drop from 65% in November 2021. For now, Diia is more a symbol of reforms than an election mechanism, but it has the potential to be one if there is full transparency of the process, with oversight including civil society and international actors.
Russian Manipulation
Any elections held during or immediately after the war are bound to be the target of Russia’s propaganda machine and army of trolls. They are already spreading through social platforms manipulative narratives around the question of whether to hold elections this year as well as about war fatigue in the West.
These try to discredit Ukraine’s current leadership and to push the country into elections during the war, while simultaneously undermining any future government, as well as to polarize society. Russia took a similar approach around the presidential election and the referendum on EU accession in Moldova in 2024.
Any elections held during or immediately after the war are bound to be the target of Russia’s propaganda machine and army of trolls.
In view of all of the above, holding elections in Ukraine while the war is ongoing is impossible.
The most likely and preferable option is to do so after a genuine peace is agreed, not a temporary ceasefire, and when all citizens, including those abroad and military personnel, who in the current situation would make up to 15% of the electorate, are given fully the opportunity to vote. And, when elections are eventually held, some critical issues will still need to be addressed.
First, ensuring the security of the campaigning and election processes, given that they will involve large crowds; for example, by strengthening air defense and engaging with peacekeepers and security monitors.
Second, amending legislation with regard to remote voting, expanding the number of polling stations abroad, and digital solutions for registering and servicing voters among expatriates, IDPs, and military personnel.
Third, ensuring transparency to improve trust in election results and to combat manipulation through, for example, open political dialogue, engagement of international experts, and exchange of experience.
Fourth, facilitating multi-stakeholder collaboration between the government, civil society, and international actors to counteract better manipulation, propaganda, and the polarization of society.
The answer to those trying to push Ukraine into premature elections is that, under current conditions, their postponement is an adequate response by a democratic society, prioritizing the survival of the state and the security of the people. And the president’s legitimacy does not stem from his ratings; it is based on legal principles. Despite the war conditions, he and the parliament continue to perform their functions, including protecting the constitutional order.